October 1, 2021
Dear Readers,
With the demise of Kashmir’s separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani, will Kashmir adopt a new path of sustainable growth? New Delhi has made it clear that separatism moves will not be tolerated and troublemakers will be eliminated. This stance needs to be taken seriously and the state ought to take to the path of peace and progress.
Ground realities in Afghanistan are disturbing in view of the Taliban’s past record. This time, however, some Taliban leaders have assured India that the Afghan territory will not be used for terrorism against India. Still, the uncertainty element is rather high since Pakistan is actively supporting Jihadist groups. New Delhi has to stay guarded and not allow any Pak-Taliban activities in J&K.
Image-making is an art. The BJP’s recent efforts to project PM Modi as the saviour of the poor and boost his image can evoke a positive response only if he is able to address basic problems of the common man.
Politics in Punjab has taken a new turn with the appointment of Dalit leader, Charanjit Singh Channi, as Chief Minister. Punjab is known for its political twists and turns – but can the jat-dominated state sustain these latest developments?
Sincerely,
Hari Jaisingh
Geelani’s demise: The road ahead in Kashmir
Whither Kashmir? Everything seemed to be going seemingly smooth after the abrogation of Article 370 and the business-like attitude adopted by the Central establishment towards the Hurriyat, potential mischief-makers and separatists. However, the death of separatist patriarch and pro-Pakistan hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani last month, signals a period of uncertainty in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) given that he was an ardent supporter of Kashmir’s merger with Pakistan.
India’s counter-terrorist task force, the NIA1, is reported to have arrested over 18 separatist leaders from Kashmir, including those from the Hurriyat who have allegedly received funds from Pakistan to foment political unrest in the Valley. It is no wonder that the government of Pakistan observed official mourning with its flag at half mast, establishing Geelani’s firm links with Pakistan.
In view of the current situation in Afghanistan, New Delhi will have to keep a close watch on the new realities in the region. It has to be on its guard with regard to Islamabad’s old game of proxy war in Kashmir. New Delhi cannot allow the separatists to operate in J&K. Geelani represented the hardliners in Kashmir. In fact, the Hurriyat has been spearheading the separatist movement for over two decades, but without much success. Terrorists of banned outfits – Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed – have been toying with the idea to infiltrate into J&K for carrying out their terror activities.
Amidst this complex situation in J&K, we ought to understand a some facts. First, there are currently two factions of the Hurriyat Conference. The hardline group was being led by late Syed Ali Shah Geelani, while Mirwaiz Umar Farooq represents the moderate faction of the Hurriyat Conference. Broadly speaking, non-Hurriyat leaders like Yasin Malik also come under the label of the moderate faction. Second, the Hurriyat Conference is no longer a united front of 26 parties. It is now a divided outfit, and at least 12 constituents came out of it in September 2003.
It may be recalled that the Hurriyat was a dominant force in Kashmir between 1993 and 1996. Its influence saw a decline when the J&K National Conference parted company from it during the 1996 Assembly election. The Hurriyat, nonetheless, managed to keep itself afloat with the support of Pakistan. However, Hurriyat leaders failed to realise that Pakistani back-up cannot make them strike roots in this country. The alliance, therefore, started crumbling, even though Hurriyat hardliners tried their best to keep themselves together despite their ideological and functional differences over future strategy, role of militancy and dialogue with New Delhi.
The moderate Mirwaiz group was then in favour of a dialogue with the Centre. However, the hardline Geelani camp openly spelt out its way of thinking, dubbing Kashmir as a disputed territory. The net result of this controversial matter generated confusion amid varied groups of Hurriyat. What is more, the Centre’s abrogation of J&K’s special status on August 5, 2019, changed the entire setting in Kashmir. This too, left the Hurriyat in disarray.
The Centre’s message was clear: extra-territorial loyalty and support to any militant movement for separatism have to end. The Central leadership has made it clear that separatism moves would not be tolerated and that troublemakers will be eliminated without mercy.
Geelani has been accused of being a double agent and on the payroll of Pakistan’s ISI2. In fact, Hurriyat leaders have often been criticised for inciting young Kashmiris to indulge in violent acts, while their family members live in comfort in parts of India and abroad. Geelani’s eldest son, Nayeem Geelani and his wife were once medical practitioners in Rawalpindi. His second son, Zahoor Geelani, lives in New Delhi with his family. Geelani’s grandson, Izhaar Geelani, is a crew member of a private airliner in India. His daughter Farhat Geelani is a teacher in Jeddah. The son and daughter of Asiya Andrabi – founding leader of Dukhtaran-e-Millat – live in Malaysia. Most of Asiya’s relatives have moved to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, England and Malaysia.3
Pakistan has been known for actively supporting Geelani and his Hurriyat outfit. Geelani was, however, misleading the people of Kashmir. He did not represent their true sentiments. The Hurriyat Conference has been a pro-Pakistani establishment, and its sole objective is to project an image of counter-insurgency operations in J&K and mobilise public opinion against Indian security forces. Against this new backdrop, the Hurriyat cannot be allowed to have its way in Kashmir.
September 3, 2021
India needs its strategic presence in Afghanistan
The Taliban seems to have consolidated its position in Afghanistan. Even the last pocket of resistance in the Panjshir Valley has reportedly come under its control. This is significant since the Taliban could not take control of the Panjshir Valley the last time it ruled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001.
The National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF) has disputed the Taliban claim. It has stated that its forces are still positioned across the Panjshir Valley. Such claims and counter-claims will continue to be heard during the days ahead. It needs to be acknowledged that the mobilisation of Pakistan’s Air Force has proved to be a game changer in favour of the Taliban, and reveals Pakistan’s dubious objective of taking control of this strategic state, much to the disadvantage of India.
After the withdrawal of US troops, New Delhi has adopted the policy of wait and watch without involving itself actively in the on-going confrontation between the Taliban and the Afghan Resistance Forces. The Modi government is treading cautiously to assess the complexities of the situation. Days after India made public its first official contact with the Taliban, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla has said that the Taliban has assured New Delhi that it would be reasonable to the concerns of India. However, uncertainty shrouds the Taliban’s stance. Right now, the establishment is giving mixed signals and speaking in two voices. This is understandable in view of Pakistan’s firm hold on most of the Taliban leaders.
Pakistan’s agenda in Afghanistan appears to be tilted against India since many of the Taliban leaders are trained and groomed in Pakistani madrassas and are under Islamabad’s grip. This poses a big challenge for New Delhi. Shringla had made it clear to the Taliban during the Qatar meeting that the Afghan territory would not be used for terrorism against India. Ground realities are, however, somewhat disturbing. An article in The Hindu points out that foreign militants outnumber local militants in north Kashmir.4 This is a grave concern as far as India’s security is concerned.
Former CIA5 chief for counter-terrorism in South and South-east Asia during 2016-18, Douglas London, says that happenings in Afghanistan are worse than an intelligence failure. In his book, The Recruiter: Spying and the Lost Art of American Intelligence, he explains how the US-Taliban peace deal was the worst agreement the US has ever negotiated. He states that the Afghan policy of both the Biden and Trump administrations were more geared towards domestic political considerations rather than national security issues. The book outlines the Haqqani Network’s solid ties with the Pakistan military and the ISI. He has categorically stated that the Haqqani Network is a criminal network and was involved in narcotics, extortion, real estate and such business for years. The ISI and the Haqqanis have always supported each other’s activities and have established a relationship of co-dependence – with each outfit profiting from the other .
According to Douglas London, India has reasons to worry about this network since Pakistan’s policies have always supported jihadist groups, keeping India in view. What is particularly worrying for New Delhi is the statement made by Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen to the BBC that the Taliban will raise its voice for Kashmiri Muslims. Taliban leader Anas Haqqani, however, told CNN-News 18 that:
“Kashmir is not part of our jurisdiction and interference is against our policy.”
Many leaders in India fear that sections within the Taliban have their eyes on India-administered J&K, with the support coming from anti-India elements in Pakistan. As of now, India has adopted a cautiously optimistic approach towards the Taliban. This is just as well, but India will have to think on new lines, notwithstanding the dark shadows on Afghanistan’s future. This has created doubts in New Delhi about the Taliban’s real intentions.
The Haqqani Network is a faction of the Taliban directly supported by Islamabad. It is, in fact, considered an extension of the ISI. With the help of this faction, Islamabad has been maintaining its hold on the Taliban. Pakistan apart, China has joined hands with the Taliban. Even Russia is seen standing with the group.
The lesson from the developments in Afghanistan is sharp and clear: it is strategically important that India maintains its presence in Afghanistan and works out both short-term and long-term policies on the Taliban-Pakistan axis.
September 10, 2021
The challenge of boosting Modi’s sagging image
Celebrated British-American editor Harold Evans once recalled the story of the Korean War picture of an American GI “sharing his last drops of water with a dying peasant” taken by famous Picture Post photographer Bert Hardy. The prize winning photographer had confessed to Evans:6
“I set it up. Everybody was walking past but I had an idea and asked a GI to give the old man some water for the sake of the picture. He said he would if I was quick – and if we used my water ration.”
As per the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the second wave of Covid-19 has dented the image of the Modi government, and hence it worked out an elaborate plan to give a boost to PM Modi’s government. The three-week campaign has several features, some of which include:
Distribution of 14 crore ration bags, each with the PM’s picture, thanking him for the 5 kg ration under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana;
Facilitation of Covid-19 vaccination drives across India as part of the Seva Samarpan campaign;
Registration drive for children who lost their parents to Covid-19 and are covered under the PM Cares for Children Scheme;
Organisation of health and blood donation camps;
Paying tribute to the Prime Minister through 5 crore “Thank you, Modiji” postcards to be mailed to PM Modi from BJP booth workers nationwide, highlighting their commitment to public service;
Paying tribute to the Prime Minister through ‘Thank you videos’ spelling out the beneficiaries of central schemes / Covid-19 vaccinations; and
Identification of 71 spots for river-cleaning to mark Modi’s 71st birthday; and
Holding meetings and exhibitions to highlight the Prime Minister’s life and work.
All this is being done on the belief that death and distress have shattered the lives and livelihood of a large number of homes which, in turn, scarred the government’s popular image.
Image-making is an art, and what counts is the end result. The end result of the BJP’s three-week campaign, which ran between September 17 and October 7, to boost the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as gareebon ka maseeha (saviour of the poor) can be viewed as disappointing. I am not questioning the BJP leadership’s good intentions behind boosting the PM Modi’s image. Politics, after all, is a volatile affair and nothing can be taken for granted as far as the public mood is concerned. During his early months in power, PM Modi’s “Change India” campaign was impressive. Since then, Indians have had several years to observe the direction the Prime Minister has taken for changing the face of India – and, somewhere down the line, his focus has gone astray, as have his priorities.
I hold no malice against any political outfit that works within the parameters for the Constitution and does an honest job for a better future of the country and without any discrimination in an inclusive development model with right priorities. For this, those at the helm of national affairs need to rise above personal, party and partisan considerations on vital public issues such as faster and inclusive growth, wider education reach, health care and employment generation in the true spirit of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Prayas7.
The moot question is: has PM Modi proved true to his own words?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s problem is his rhetoric. He specialises in making promises at public rallies without any time-frame and in the hope that the people would go on believing in him as a great performer. Subsequent events have, however, proved him on the wrong side of his own agenda. Another problem with the PM is his inability to take along non-BJP leaders with his march forward in Federal India. Equally disquieting is the manner in which he sidelined the party’s stalwarts, such as L. K. Advani, Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha and Shatrughan Sinha, from his circle of power.
Narendra Modi ought to have followed the footsteps of Atal Behari Vajpayee and acquired a better grip of rural-urban ground realities. He could have also avoided creating a pro-rich image in a poor-dominated developing country such as India. Modi has often promised economic reforms and creating more jobs for India’s youth. Every year, 5 million youngsters enter the workforce, but are they being taken care of? Certainly not, especially keeping in view the slowdown of India’s pandemic-hit economy.
The Prime Minister’s lack of special efforts to help Indian farmers continues to disappoint. We must not forget that nearly 800 million people of India’s 1.3 billion depend directly or indirectly on farming. Be that as it may, in order to boost his image, PM Modi needs to address himself to the people’s basic problems and not get carried away by high-flying thoughts. He must realise that 21st century India cannot afford to ignore urban-rural ground realities and repeat mistakes of the past.
September 17, 2021
Punjab Congress opts for a Dalit face for Chief Minister
Punjab politics took a dramatic turn last month following the “forced” exit of Captain Amarinder Singh as Chief Minister due to vested interests led by Navjot Singh Sidhu. The party picked a Dalit face, Charanjit Singh Channi, for Chief Minister in a jat-dominated state. Outwardly, the appointment of a Dalit, in a state with nearly 32 percent Dalit population, seems to be a sound political decision. The choice by the Congress Legislative Party was unanimous.
With Channi’s elevation, the Congress high command has ensured that the state’s Congress President, Navjot Singh Sidhu, is kept under check, while at the same time allowed to emerge as the party’s jat face. Ironically, it was Captain Amarinder Singh who had paved the way for Channi’s return to the Congress in December 2010, three years after he had rebelled against the Congress for the Chamkaur Sahib seat in the 2002 Assembly elections. Channi had then fought and won as an independent candidate. Amidst Punjab’s political twists and turns, he was made a minister in Amarinder Singh’s cabinet. And that is how politics in Punjab is conducted!
Channi is known to have once revolted against Captain Amarinder Singh, demanding greater representation of Dalits in his cabinet. A lawyer, with an MBA degree, he has the reputation of being a focused fighter for Dalit rights. He was even at the forefront of the revolt against Singh, accusing him of not fulfilling the party’s election promises. These points and counter-points are part of Punjab’s political games.
Chief Minister Channi has had his share of controversies. In 2008, an IAS officer had accused him of sending her an inappropriate text message. During the same year, he was the centre of a row when he chose to toss a coin to decide on postings for lecturers at a polytechnic.
Looking beyond, while the 79-year –old outgoing chief minister may have lost the numbers game with party loyalists, he could still play spoilsport. He has particularly hit out at Sidhu, calling out his Pakistani connection and has dubbed him as “anti-national, dangerous, unstable and incompetent”.
This is how Punjab politics gets conducted by varied political interests. There are wheels within wheels and it is difficult to say which political wheel gets rotated on whose behalf. Nonetheless, the Congress leadership has done some hard calculations in appointing Channi as Chief Minister, along with Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa and Om Prakash Soni as his two deputies. While Channi is an MLA from Chamkaur Sahib in the Malwa region, Soni and Randhawa represent Amritsar Central and Dera Baba Nanak respectively in Majha region. The idea behind this move is to get two-thirds of the top leaders from Majha – comprising Amritsar, Pathankot and Tarn Tarn districts – in the run-up to the Assembly elections in early 2022. This is seen as a clever move by the Congress leadership as the rebellion against Captain Amarinder Singh was mostly led by leaders from that region.
In the 117-member Vidhan Sabha, Majha accounts for 25 Assembly seats, Doaba for 23 seats, and Malwa for the remaining 69 seats. Malwa is considered a politically influential region. However, it is the Panthic belt of Majha that has often seen a kingmaker in the state’s politics. In this Panthic belt, Sikh voters often are said to tilt towards one party. In fact, Hindu and Sikh voters in Majha have often voted en masse for one party or an alliance. It must be stated that both Hindus and Sikhs voted for the Congress in 2017, while they did for the SAD-BJP alliance in 2007.
Professor Ronki Ram, an expert on Dalit politics in Punjab, has said that Channi’s appointment as CM will surely help the Congress in the forthcoming elections. Still, there could be some unknown factors at play given that the Congress is seen as a house divided today.
“Politics is perhaps the only profession for which no preparation is thought necessary.”
A look at the quality of our politicians would prove Robert Louis Stevenson’s above statement. In fact, what is not feasible otherwise, can be achieved through the power of sycophancy. In this country, we are quick to prostrate before those who are part of the existing establishment, and equally swift to withdraw loyalty from past leaders and administrators. This unfortunately has become part of the political culture in Punjab.
September 24, 2021
National Investigation Agency
Inter-Services Intelligence
https://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20100919/main2.htm
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/exclusive-foreign-militants-outnumber-locals-in-north-kashmir-pose-security-challenge/article36302976.ece
Central Intelligence Agency
http://196.189.45.87/bitstream/123456789/58699/1/16pdf.pdf
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