August 1, 2021
Dear Readers,
Amidst centenary celebrations of the ruling Communist Party of China on July 1, we had a glimpse of President Xi Jinping as a supreme leader in Beijing. He talks big and spoke of the Chinese dream of achieving national rejuvenation. We could see the emergence of a new Mao, both in style and in substance. He views China as a supreme power, both economically and militarily. Democratic countries such as India need to work out a new strategy to deal with President Xi’s power strategy.
Back home, PM Modi is trying to chase his dream concept of Acchhe Din amidst harsh ground realities. He has a long way to go in making India an equal land of opportunities for all. This cannot be done by words, but through solid work for the people, backed by strong political will.
In the region, another disturbing scenario is the emergence of militant Islamic Taliban in the strategically-located state of Afghanistan. Taliban forces are known for cultural genocide against Afghan civilians. The world has no answer to the Pak-supported Islamic Mujahideen forces.
Yet another major challenge before the people of India is Pegasus. The Israeli spyware could play surveillance games which, in turn, affect the people’s privacy and freedom of speech. The matter is now before the Supreme Court and the credibility of the current establishment continues to remain in question.
Sincerely,
Hari Jaisingh
Pakistan’s flying terror tool
Indian leaders had started giving serious thoughts on possible follow-up moves after the June 24 talks with 14 Jammu and Kashmir leaders. However, the dropping of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) from drones, in the technical areas of the Jammu Air Force Station, during the early hours of June 27, has diverted the nation’s attention to this disturbing event. The incident is being seen as an extension of Pakistan’s sky-bound terror tool.
Even the Army has sighted two drones over Jammu’s Ratnuchak-Kaluchak military area. Quick Reaction Teams engaged them in the firing, and thereafter, both drones flew away. The lesson from the event is clear: alertness and pro-active approach of the troops makes all the difference in the quality of security.
It is no secret that over the past two years Pakistan has used drones for smuggling arms, ammunition and drugs into the Indian territory. As per government data, in 2019, 167 drone sightings were recorded along the border with Pakistan; in 2020, 77 drone sightings were recorded. Drones are also used for aerial surveillance and existing radar systems are incapable of detecting them since they fly low. This poses a significant challenge for our security establishment in working out countermeasures.
Since security matters are generally conducted secretly, beyond the prying eyes of the people, it is difficult to gauge if the Modi government has been slow in its response to this issue. India is surely a hi-tech power and has acquired global attention for its technical prowess and professional skills in critical areas of governance. Still, we lend an impression of either being lopsided in our approach or slow in responding to the changes in the system.
Today’s security matters require special attention. They have to be viewed in totality of geo-political realities, economic muscle, leadership quality, modern weaponry and tools, and strategic projection in tune with the basic needs of national interests and security. It is not enough to have a few smart generals. Nor is it enough to have the Indira Gandhis and Vajpayees to see things selectively. What is required is proper functioning of credible institutions in security and related areas that should help develop alternate strategic policies, critical studies and objective assessment of ground realities.
It needs to be reiterated that our security concerns must not be politicised. We ought to rise above personal and political considerations. Nationalism is not the monopoly of one single party; moreover, the need for rational coordinated thinking and approach to security affairs cannot be overemphasised.
It may be pointed out that last year, Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh had written to PM Modi flagging the “serious implications” of the delivery of weapons and contraband from Pakistan via low flying sub-conventional aerial platforms, including Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and drones.
In his letter of November 21, 2020, Captain Amarinder Singh provided details of the threat and underlined the need for counter-measures before he met Home Minister Amit Shah and discussed the same. Singh had asked the Prime Minister to convene a high-level meeting of different stakeholders to examine the drone threat and “discuss and rethink strategies” regarding installation of infrastructure that can detect the movement of these aerial platforms. 1 He had written:
“Suitable counter-measures against the use of such drones would also need to be developed, as it is now becoming clear that Pakistan is deploying such platforms to deliver contraband from across the border.”
Captain Amarinder Singh is accurate in spelling out the drone threat from across the border, especially since the frequent launch of drones “makes border fencing redundant”. These issues raised by the Punjab Chief Minister need to be taken note of by the Modi government. So far, India has not blamed any country for the drone attack, which has left two IAF personnel injured.
We have to constantly keep in mind that the use of drones by Pakistan-based elements should be a cause of concern. Although tech-based solutions are being explored, it has to be noted that anti-drone jammers are not effective in the border areas. They can, however, be deployed at security-sensitive installations to prevent such attacks.
Looking beyond, the latest threat is not a simple matter of merely viewing the scene in terms of arms and ammunition. It has a larger connotation than is normally appreciated. Size and quality of the armed forces apart, the concept of national security carries several important components such as economic power, political will, social realities, foreign policy objectives and the environmental setting in the neighbourhood. Pakistan apart, we have to keep in mind the presence of China.
We, of course, tend to talk big and wish to project India as a major power. Wishes, however, cannot deliver the goods unless they are backed by sound planning and concrete actions in new technological drone-related areas. We must not overlook new security problems the country is faced with.
The Modi establishment has taken up the drone challenge seriously. It is on the job to diversify defensive strategies in the five concentric circles of prevention, deterrence, denial, detection, interruption and destruction. In fact, early detection and identification are necessary to promptly neutralize the drone threat. New Delhi must stay guarded lest drones fall into the wrong hands.
July 2, 2021
A new strategy to deal with Xi’s China
Chinese helmsman Mao used to say ‘signal left, turn right’
. This is a typical Chinese characteristic of misleading friends and critics. Mao is long gone and no longer held in awe in Beijing. Still, his dictum has been practised by successive leaders including China’s current leader of destiny, President Xi Jinping.
Nehru’s India became familiar with the all-smile diplomacy of Mao and Zhou stabbing in the back during the 1962 NEFA2 happenings. Prime Minister Narendra Modi must by now, have known about President Xi Jinping’s deceptive behaviour pattern. Modi had once given a King-like welcome to the Chinese leader in Ahmedabad. Perhaps at that time he had no idea about President Xi’s hidden face that subsequently surfaced in the Ladakh face-off last year.
President Xi Jinping has emerged as a supreme leader in Beijing. He took charge of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2012 and as President of China in 2013. He has, by now, tightened his grip on the CCP, as well as the functional organs of state institutions.
A highly ambitious person, his primary goal now is to take China’s modernisation mission forward with a view to making it a super power – politically, economically and militarily. He wishes to build China as a strong and prosperous socialist country. His over-confidence and determination to make China a big success story was clearly reflected in his speech of July 1 at the event marking the centenary celebrations of the ruling party.
In an hour-long speech to a gathering of thousands at Tiananmen Square, President Xi hailed China’s “national rejuvenation” – the theme he has often emphasized since his emergence on the public platform in 2012. On the rostrum, he was accompanied by the politburo and past senior leaders, including ex-President Hu Jintao.
The celebrations had the touches of the era of Mao Zedong – a choir by 3,000 students was heard singing praise of the party; helicopters flew over Tiananmen carrying the old Communist Party flags, followed by J-20 jet fighters. President Xi was dressed in a dark green Mao-style suit. In his speech, he repeated his favourite phrase of “national rejuvenation” as many as 24 times and made it clear that China’s success hinges on the leadership of the party.
In the most resounding part of his speech, he warned that those who attempt to bully China will face “broken heads and bloodshed”
. It is rather ironic that the Chinese leader should be talking about bullying of China! His claim that China does not bully other nations sounds hollow. Recent events are indicative of China’s bullying of the neighbouring countries, including India. New Delhi has suffered Beijing’s bullying and aggression at the border on different occasions from its 1962 land grab to more recently in Ladakh.
Xi underlined the communists’ role in lifting China to global prominence and proudly talked about one-party rule. He hit back at the US and others that have often criticized China’s trade and technology policies, military expansion and human rights record.
There is no doubt that Xi is following the footsteps of Mao Zedong, both in style and in substance. After taking over in 2002, he elevated his standing in the party at par with Mao. He has established the party’s direct role in every facet of decision-making and projected himself as the sole leader. I believe that it would be a matter of time when Xi Jinping would over-shadow Mao.
It is obvious that Xi Jinping is moving away from the concept of collective leadership to the rule by one core leader. That core leader right now is the CPC’s General Secretary, the country’s President and head of the military – all powerful entity of China today. Xi Jinping says:
“We must uphold the core position of the General Secretary on the Party Central Committee and in the Party as a whole, and uphold the Central Committee's authority and its centralized, unified leadership. Bearing in mind the country's most fundamental interests, we should shoulder our responsibilities and answer the call of the new era while rising to all challenges.”
President Xi Jinping’s great power strategy has to be taken seriously by the western world and the neighbouring countries, including India. China has already emerged as the world’s second largest economy. It hopes to overtake the United States by 2036, in several areas, including technology. With its economic success, President Xi believes that China is already a legitimate big player given that economic power is the very foundation of political and military power.
President Xi’s message to the world leaders is sharp and clear. He has to be taken seriously by democratic countries like India. PM Modi ought to have taken a thorough note of his speech and think of India’s strategy for building its economic and military power on a faster pace. However, we as a nation, ought to think of a strong India sans the politics.
July 9, 2021
Chasing Achhe Din, PM Modi style!
To refurbish his sagging global image in the face of his failure to tackle the second wave of Covid-19 crisis effectively, Prime Minister Modi recently inducted in his ministry, qualified professionals belonging to different caste and sub-caste groups. This was a commendable move that is sure to boost his public image, provided it is seriously followed up by coordinated action for the necessary correctives. At stake is the quality of leadership at all levels, but mainly by the person at the helm of national affairs.
The former Chief Minister of Gujarat did ignite a ray of hope for Achhe Din
in 2014. Seven years have gone by since then, and paradoxically, we still have in our midst more than 35 crore Indians living below the poverty line. The multi-dimensional Covid-19 crisis has only made things worse.
We, the people, however, continue to hope against hope at the ever-elusive promise of Achhe Din
. The list of harsh ground realities is long. It touches upon the basics of life and society. It also reflects a state of drift as inner contradictions look sharper than ever before, as do the numerous complexities.
Most of these complexities are political and man-made. No wonder, we witnessed the collapse of the healthcare system for innumerable Covid-19 victims, both in and out of hospitals. The intent here is not to draw a gloomy picture. Yet, the stark realities on the ground have to be faced boldly by PM Modi and his team, keeping in view the electoral challenges ahead.
I hate to recall harsh realities of suicide-prone farmers camping near the national capital’s borders, pot-bellied and thin-limbed children of slums, shelterless men and women, child labour, discrimination against girls and young women, absence of modern educational facilities in rural areas amidst the official slogan-mongering of “smart towns”
and the bullet train.
The list of people’s woes is long as public patience gets overstretched. Still, the people’s silence looks “golden” in the absence of right happenings. Good governance is a hard task. Herein lies buried for the present an “India between dream and reality” even after 75 years of Independence amidst changing colours of parties and leaders. The flaws in the system remain evergreen amidst free-wheeling politics and the absence of visionary leadership. This is how India moves on, on the myths of recycled promises.
The poor and the backward dotting India’s digital landscape live on their dreams; and the dreams are sold to them by way of rhetoric. Who cares if a tribal woman from Odisha sells her male child to another childless woman in the neighbourhood so she can meet the basic needs of her large family? It is a pity that the tribal woman is even denied the luxury of keeping her male child who gets sold for a mere sum of INR 2,000!
This is the uncared for India we are all concerned about. What is, however, a matter of concern is the absence of a credible internal communication and grievances redressal mechanism. In his book, “The Future of Democracy”
, Norberto Bobbio talks about ideals and brute facts. In India, the goal post for ideals keeps shifting. As for brute facts, no leader likes to face them.
We can surely change our future for the better. However, changing the future for the better requires two essential ingredients: clarity of thought to do what is right and what we need, and second, the willingness to work towards that end.
How can the dream concept of change be achieved without systemic efforts to ensure that the process of growth gets seeped down to everyone, including those at the lowest rung of society?
Unfortunately, what matters in India today is the politics of manipulation, courtesy power brokers. This, in turn, has diluted the effectiveness of our democratic institutions. I am not sure if PM Modi would take these observations seriously. Herein lies the tragedy of the promise of Achhe Din
.
Any change has to be directed towards the welfare of the poor, backward classess, have-nots, over-exploited tribals and the minorities left behind on the socio-economic ladder of whatever progress we have achieved so far.
The challenge before us is one of ushering in an all-inclusive India as a land of opportunities for millions of jobless young women and men, along with quality education, a sound healthcare system and better living conditions. Over to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dream concept of Achhe Din
. It is time he acts swiftly in the interests of the deprived sections of Indian population. Not by words, but by solid work on the ground.
July 16, 2021
Facing Afghan-Taliban Challenges
The strategically-located state of Afghanistan once again finds itself in a turmoil. Despite the latest round of shuttle diplomacy by more than a dozen diplomatic missions for an urgent end to the Taliban’s military offensive, the fighting between Afghan forces and the ultra militant group continues. The Taliban have captured a sizeable swath across Afghanistan, capturing hundreds of districts, seizing key border crossings and encircling provincial capitals.
The Taliban offensive is apparently in contradiction to their claim to support a negotiated settlement. This has resulted in the loss of innocent Afghan lives through targeted killings, displacement of the civilian population, looting and burning of buildings, and destruction of vital infrastructure and communication networks.
Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani has conceded that the jihadi fighters have won some battles, but asserted that they will win the war. The situation is, however, both complex and explosive as the Taliban have made swift territorial gains. According to the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, General Mark Milley the Taliban seem to have:
“strategic momentum in their sweeping offensive across Afghanistan, but their victory is far from assured.”
Nearly 20 years after the US toppled the Taliban regime in the wake of the 9/11 attacks and with a near withdrawal of US-led foreign forces, militants now control more than half of Afghanistan’s 400 districts. Taliban forces have played havoc in the mountainous landlocked country. Its population is composed mostly of ethnic Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. Afghanistan’s has indeed been a tragic story.
The Taliban came up in 1994 as one of the main factions in the Afghan Civil War. From 1996 to 2001, it held power over roughly three-quarters of the country and conducted themselves in a ruthless manner and committed massacres against Afghan civilians.
The Taliban is a Sunni Islamist nationalist and pro-Pashtun movement that has followed ruthless policies on the treatment of women, political opponents and religious minorities. In their drive towards cultural genocide against civilians, they banned music, art and other forms of cultural expression, and also denied education to girls. They destroyed numerous monuments, including the famous 1500-year-old Buddhas of Bamiyan. They evolved their own forms of Sharia Islamic law and militant Islamism.
Soon, Afghanistan became the centre of international conflicts, with the Soviet Union occupying it in 1979. This activated Islamic Mujahideen forces, supported by Pakistan and the West. The Taliban formally emerged from the US-Saudi-Pakistan supported Mujahideen. This led to the fall of Afghanistan’s Soviet-backed regime in 1992, followed by a series of conflicts, which has been the pattern of the Taliban militancy.
Though Pakistan has repeatedly denied that it was the architect of the Taliban emergence, there is little doubt that many Afghans who initially joined the movement were educated in Pakistan’s madrassas. In fact, Pakistan was also one of three countries, along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which recognized the Taliban when they were in power in Afghanistan.
Despite grave concerns from Afghan officials over the Kabul government’s vulnerability to the Taliban without international support, the new US President, Joe Biden, announced in April 2021, that all American and NATO forces would leave the country by September 11, two decades to the day since the World Trade Centre attack in New York. In fact, the Taliban advance has been more rapid than many had feared.
General Austin Miller, commander of the US-led mission in Afghanistan, warned in June that the country could be on a path towards a chaotic civil war, which he called a “concern for the world”. It is indeed regrettable that even the developed world does not have the answers to deal with the Taliban, militarily or politically.
What is equally a matter of concern is India’s lopsided policies towards the Taliban. India has big stakes in Afghanistan, strategically, politically and economically, having spent over USD 3 billion in the country’s development and educational projects.
According to Russian diplomat Roman Babushkin, India has played a vital role in Afghanistan’s development and it is now for New Delhi to decide the level of engagement in the country. The Russian diplomat is also of the view that there is no military solution to the current situation. Both Russia and India have been supportive of development and educational projects in Afghanistan; and both countries are actively monitoring the situation there.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar states:
“Evidence strongly supports the view that India has advanced its interests effectively when it made hard-headed assessments of contemporary geopolitics.”
He adds:
“Taking risks is inherent to the realization of ambition.”
Is this time for such ambition to be tested in Afghanistan? Yes. India has no option but to do everything to address real challenges facing this country. Hard facts have to be taken into account to deal with the Taliban. The task is not easy, but New Delhi needs to take risks order to achieve its goals and objectives in Afghanistan.
Should India keep its window open for a dialogue with the Taliban? This may be necessary for India’s security and economic interests. India also has to act on the political front. It has to think of countering Pakistan’s influence over hardline elements linked to the Taliban, like the Haqqani Network. We have also to keep Kashmir interests in mind against the backdrop of Afghanistan’s complex geopolitical setting.
July 23, 2021
Pegasus spyware and people’s freedom
The much-talked about Pegasus spyware is the latest technology-driven James Bond-type operation, which spies on selective journalists, political dissidents, activists and other unwanted elements pitted against powers-that-be. There can take multiple routes to reach a specified target on the phone. This deadly technology device has been developed by Israel’s NSO Group. Apparently, NSO devices were meant to target potential criminals and terrorists. However, they play entirely different surveillance games these days, which are matters of serious concern for anyone who believes in privacy and freedom of citizens.
The technology, as in operation, cannot be rolled back. At the same time, it cannot be allowed to become an unregulated exercise in its wide-ranging snooping games, affecting the freedom of the media and citizens in different walks of life.
Pegasus spyware can reach a targeted phone in a number of ways. It has now developed a device whereby it can include “zero-click” attacks, where the target need not take any action for the phone to be infected. According to WhatsApp, Pegasus can enter phones via calls made on the platform, even if they were not answered. According to Claudio Guarnieri of Amnesty International Security Lab, root privileges are a level of control over the phone that is beyond what regular user has. It enables Pegasus to set up shop within the phone.
India figures in a group of countries whose governments are said to have brought Pegasus spyware from Israel’s surveillance company. It is said to be selling its technology only to governments which are supposed to use it only for national security purposes, and not with the purpose of playing with human rights of peace-loving citizens.
Ironically, the countries which have cleared NSO group’s Lakshmana Rekha of human rights include Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Mexico. The spyware cost is exorbitant, with just the installation cost at USD 500,000. As per 2016 estimates, the cost of spying on 10 devices is USD 650,000. Additional targets imply higher costs and the annual maintenance fee is pegged at 17 percent of the total price.
What about a country’s private citizens? Who cares if they are targeted for surveillance?Herein lies the tragedy.
As already stated, India is listed among the countries that have opted for this system. More than a thousand individuals figure in the list, which includes phone numbers of opposition politicians, dissident journalists, lawyers, activists, intellectuals, businessmen and several officials in the non-compliance category.
The Wire in India, The Guardian in the UK and America’s Washington Post suggest that roughly 40 journalists, cabinet ministers and some persons holding constitutional positions have figured in India’s surveillance target. The Modi establishment has not denied purchasing Pegasus. In a democracy such as ours, PM Modi cannot remain quiet about this matter amidst mounting storm in both Houses of Parliament.
Rahul Gandhi and friends, freelance political advisor Prashant Kishor, Mamata Banerjee’s nephew, Trinamool MP Abhishek Banerjee, former Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa, cabinet ministers – Ashwini Vaishnav and Prahlad Singh Patel, CJI Ranjan Gogoi, microbiologist and virologist Gagandeep Kang, and India head of Gates Foundation Hari Menon, are among many who figure in the list, keeping in view the ruling party’s major political stakes in such names.
There have been multiple adjournments in both Houses of Parliament as opposition parties have continued with protests against the government on the Pegasus issue. Seven opposition parties have written to President Ram Nath Kovind seeking his intervention for debate on this row. The letter states that the use of Pegasus software “to tape telephone numbers of politicians as well as journalists and activists besides known detractors of the NDA government has sent shockwaves amongst civil society.”
The letter further added that it the Israeli company NSO sells the software only to vetted governments and that:
“Despite these revelations, the Union Government is refusing to disclose why it had used this software against its own citizens.”
Indian journalists are known to act as watchdogs of democracy. They have reported cases of miscarriage of justice, often exposing wrongs perpetrated on the weaker sections by the ruling masters and persons in the land for corruption and bribery. Our media persons know how and when to lambast the authorities to safeguard the people’s freedom and their right to information. Pegasus is a far more critical issue that threatens the very foundation of democracy and citizens’ constitutional rights.
Senior journalists N. Ram and Sashi Kumar have moved the Supreme Court seeking an independent probe headed by a former or sitting judge of the Court into the alleged mass surveillance of potential targets.
The petition states:
“Such mass surveillance using a military-grade spyware abridges several fundamental rights and appears to represent an attempt to infiltrate, attack and destabilise independent institutions that act as critical pillars of our democratic set-up.”
The petition seeks a full disclosure from the government on whether it had authorized intrusion which, it says, seemed to be an attempt to suppress free speech. The government is yet to give a straight response to the illegal hack.
The moot question is: If the Modi establishment has nothing to hide, then why should it maintain silence on this critical issue of our democracy and the people’s freedom to speak freely and fearlessly?
The challenge lies in speaking out the truth, which has to be part of political dharma of the ruling establishment. The authorities are not expected to play politics. The credibility of the current establishment continues to be at stake.
July 30, 2021
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/in-november-amarinder-had-flagged-the-threat-from-drones-in-punjab-to-pm-modi-7380229/
North East Frontier Area